By pat on July 4, 2008 1:54 AM
Dear Tun,
I, on the other hand, think that investing in or developing agriculture has its merit. Our country is resourceful, unlike Singapore, Hong Kong, and others. However, there is still room for improvement in the way we produce our crops. By enhancing agricutural productivity and efficiency, we are better guarded against external supply shocks. At the same time, we also increase our competitiveness in international food supply markets which attractiveness has never been more apparent against a backdrop of looming food crisis. What is more important is, before a nation is asked to toil for a better future, the nation shall be assured of food security first.
Also, we shall not let our economy go heavily lopsided. We need a balanced economy so that everyone, regardless of education level and background, has the oppportunity to claim a stake in our economy. Agriculture provides ample opportunity for many disadvantaged groups to practise entrepreneurship, whereas these people may only be able to qualify themselves as a factory worker, if we only have manufacturing jobs. Besides, every field/industry has a place for high-tech, but having an assortment of career choices is just as important.
It is rather premature to dismiss the present government efforts to encourage economic growth as ineffective or inefficient as the effects may probably be seen after several years. However, insufficient is probably a description everyone would agree with. Having to embroil itself in the current political turmoil, I seriously doubt the present administration can still keep the economy in perspective. Election results and party/racial interests seem to dominate or take precedence over the more important national well-being.
In this unprecedented trying situation, we need a great leader more than ever. There would be little contention to say that Tun's leadership skills are more superior than those of your hand-picked successor, our PM. But again, who do you think, among UMNO leaders, has better leadership than Tun? It is not easy to find one. Therefore, we shall not discount Pak Lah on the basis of lack of show of leadership and shall let his actions speak for him. For instance, his campaign to promote greater transparency and efficiency had exhibited just another side of great leadership and had won the hearts of many. Unfortunately, allegations of his putting in place a family-run government has ripped the very trust we placed in him in the 2004GE.
The people of Malaysia are crying for a leader who is competent, visionary, fair, and having high integrity. At present, who, within UMNO or the bumiputra oppositions, has such qualities? The DPM hasn't cleared his name of homicide or connection to it, at least in the public eyes. The advisor to PKR hasn't cleared his name of sodomy, punishable by law. And, our PM has almost lost his grip on politics and people's confidence in his stewardship. The people's confidence in the government must be restored following a change of leadership. If a change of leadership is not expected to restore public confidence, why change? If we ourselves are not even confident of our own country, what can be expected of foreign investors?
Tun, we are only slightly more than 2 terms away from the year 2020. Our dream will be in jeopardy if we have a wrong leader for the 1st term; and doomed if we have another wrong leader for the 2nd term. I hope Tun can continue to help the people of Malaysia in your capacity. You will be dearly loved and remembered as the nation's HERO.
Best regards.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Recession is coming...
Dear Tun Dr. Mahathir,
I suddenly see the twilight of a major economic change which may be a dawn of ending the Crude Crisis. Somebody has finally concluded that recession is coming and there will be no more reason for Crude price to go up further again! The following is a message forwarded to me by a friend of mine and I wish to share it with you:
"Recession is coming ... make your own judgment, don't panic !!
Do what is wise. The recession looks very eminent. It is really time to take proactive steps to avoid a painful time in the next two years, which is how long the recession is expected to last.
Suggestions:
1. Don't take any loans, buy homes, properties with loans, or even cash. Keep as much cash as possible.
2. Pay off as much of personal loans, private loans, as debt collection will be hastened.
3. Sell any stocks you can even at lower prices.
4. Take money off from Trust Funds.
5. Don't believe in huge sales forecast from customers, be extremely prudent, lowest inventories, reduce liabilities.
6. Don't invest in new capital.
7. If you are selling homes/ properties/ cars , do it now, when you can get good prices, they are going to fall.
8. Don't invest in new business proposals.
9. Cancel holiday plans using credit cards.
10. Don't change jobs, as companies will retrench based on 'last in first out'. Stay cool, wait, and if you took all of the above actions and more, you probably will be better off than many.
This is not a rumor. Bear Stearns is the first of many banking and financial institutions that will start falling in the not too future. If Bear Stearns can fall, so can JP Morgan, Citibank, HSBC, and the whole world.
US economy falls, the rest will crumble.
India and all those self-sufficient economies will be the most protected, but not gullible.
Europe may be a little stronger, but not China , another giant!
Malaysia will see significant impact.
However, recession is probably the only way to build up a downward momentum for the movement of fuel cost, and bankruptcy is the universal justice for punishing the fund managers who have imprudent heavy financial exposure to the forward buying contracts in Crude."
I suddenly see the twilight of a major economic change which may be a dawn of ending the Crude Crisis. Somebody has finally concluded that recession is coming and there will be no more reason for Crude price to go up further again! The following is a message forwarded to me by a friend of mine and I wish to share it with you:
"Recession is coming ... make your own judgment, don't panic !!
Do what is wise. The recession looks very eminent. It is really time to take proactive steps to avoid a painful time in the next two years, which is how long the recession is expected to last.
Suggestions:
1. Don't take any loans, buy homes, properties with loans, or even cash. Keep as much cash as possible.
2. Pay off as much of personal loans, private loans, as debt collection will be hastened.
3. Sell any stocks you can even at lower prices.
4. Take money off from Trust Funds.
5. Don't believe in huge sales forecast from customers, be extremely prudent, lowest inventories, reduce liabilities.
6. Don't invest in new capital.
7. If you are selling homes/ properties/ cars , do it now, when you can get good prices, they are going to fall.
8. Don't invest in new business proposals.
9. Cancel holiday plans using credit cards.
10. Don't change jobs, as companies will retrench based on 'last in first out'. Stay cool, wait, and if you took all of the above actions and more, you probably will be better off than many.
This is not a rumor. Bear Stearns is the first of many banking and financial institutions that will start falling in the not too future. If Bear Stearns can fall, so can JP Morgan, Citibank, HSBC, and the whole world.
US economy falls, the rest will crumble.
India and all those self-sufficient economies will be the most protected, but not gullible.
Europe may be a little stronger, but not China , another giant!
Malaysia will see significant impact.
However, recession is probably the only way to build up a downward momentum for the movement of fuel cost, and bankruptcy is the universal justice for punishing the fund managers who have imprudent heavy financial exposure to the forward buying contracts in Crude."
What is Dr Mahathir trying to hint us?
YABhg Tun Dr. Mahathir,
Do you feel regret for having the Official Secret Act (OSA) tabled and passed in Parliament during your tenure of the PM's office?
If there is no OSA, I believe Tun shall be set free now to disclose to the Malaysians somemore secrets about the foreign debt burden of the Malaysian government. So far, Tun only tells us about the projected income which the government is estimated to earn. However, we are still not able to judge on which decision to be chosen that can help to effectively overcome the current economic problems without knowing much about the information on the government's financial burden.
"18. In the meantime the world is undergoing a traumatic economic and financial turmoil. It began with the devaluation of the US Dollar. I do not know how much US Dollar bonds are held by Malaysia. I remember telling the Governor of Bank Negara to reduce our dollar holdings before I stepped down. I hope she has done so. Otherwise we would lose 80 Malaysian sen for every US Dollar we hold. When we hold 30 or 40 billion US Dollar the loss can be considerable."
By saying that "I do not know how much US Dollar bonds are held by Malaysia", Tun is indirectly suggesting that Bank Negara could have made a lot of paper loss in book value of the dollar holdings. However, this loss by right should have already been reflected in Bank Negara's monthly declaration on the holdings of International Reserves. Is Tun trying to hint us that Bank Negara's disclosure may be hiding something from the eyes of the Public?
"19. We may make some money from the other currencies which have appreciated against our Ringgit."
With clause 19, Tun's motive is quite sceptical. Is Tun trying to encourage attack on Ringgit by swapping Ringgit with other appreciating foreign currencies? Is Tun trying to act like George Soros in this round of attack?
Please, Tun! Please spare the Malaysians from another round of currency attack and do have mercy on us! Please talk more positively about our future and talk less negatively about our economic problems!
Onlooker
Do you feel regret for having the Official Secret Act (OSA) tabled and passed in Parliament during your tenure of the PM's office?
If there is no OSA, I believe Tun shall be set free now to disclose to the Malaysians somemore secrets about the foreign debt burden of the Malaysian government. So far, Tun only tells us about the projected income which the government is estimated to earn. However, we are still not able to judge on which decision to be chosen that can help to effectively overcome the current economic problems without knowing much about the information on the government's financial burden.
"18. In the meantime the world is undergoing a traumatic economic and financial turmoil. It began with the devaluation of the US Dollar. I do not know how much US Dollar bonds are held by Malaysia. I remember telling the Governor of Bank Negara to reduce our dollar holdings before I stepped down. I hope she has done so. Otherwise we would lose 80 Malaysian sen for every US Dollar we hold. When we hold 30 or 40 billion US Dollar the loss can be considerable."
By saying that "I do not know how much US Dollar bonds are held by Malaysia", Tun is indirectly suggesting that Bank Negara could have made a lot of paper loss in book value of the dollar holdings. However, this loss by right should have already been reflected in Bank Negara's monthly declaration on the holdings of International Reserves. Is Tun trying to hint us that Bank Negara's disclosure may be hiding something from the eyes of the Public?
"19. We may make some money from the other currencies which have appreciated against our Ringgit."
With clause 19, Tun's motive is quite sceptical. Is Tun trying to encourage attack on Ringgit by swapping Ringgit with other appreciating foreign currencies? Is Tun trying to act like George Soros in this round of attack?
Please, Tun! Please spare the Malaysians from another round of currency attack and do have mercy on us! Please talk more positively about our future and talk less negatively about our economic problems!
Onlooker
Some thoughts on political economic policy
YABhg Tun Dr. Mahathir,
"36. Malaysia must give up the idea of competing on the basis of low cost labour. Against China, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia we just cannot win. We must provide other elements attractive to investors."
Comment by Onlooker: To give up competing on the basis of cheap labour, the government must be willing to abandone the affirmative action policy and turn to meritocracy policy in hiring the talented people in the administration of the Government Offices and the amanagement of the Government Linked Corporations. Otherwise, the best talents can always find a better pay job in neighbouring countries and in the private sector. The end-result will be an inefficient government bureaucracy being operated by some half-past-six government chief officers.
"37. Confidence in the consistency of Government policies and political stability would be among the factors attractive to business. There can be a lot of other things that can be provided to offset the rise in wages. After all we must remember that many developed countries have very high wages. Even if we double the salaries and wages paid in Malaysia we would still be far lower than wages in developed countries."
Comment by Onlooker: Tun Dr. Mahathir has been viewed by many analysts as the most critical factor which attempts to destabilize or has destabilized the political stability of contemporary Malaysia. The sincerity of Tun in relation to the above sentences is a bit questionable. No wonder some bloggers like to name-call Tun as a "hypocrite."
"38. We had planned to go hi-tech in order to increase income. But there is not much moving in the implementation of this policy. Instead we want to be an agricultural country again. Planting food crops on the side tables of roads may increase food production but it will not help fight inflation on the scale needed for overcoming the turmoil in the world."
Comment by Onlooker: Tun Dr. Mahathir had about 22 years' chances to go hi-tech in Proton Automobile Engines. However, why were there many Proton Cars which still had to be powered by Mitsubishi Engines for running on the road? "Hi-Tech Nation" is indeed a whimsy easier to dream of than to put into practical implementation. To increase food production for purpose of better national food security is a political consideration rather than an economic consideration. Even though the policy of the late Tun Abdul Razak, the so-called "Rancangan Buku Hijau", was deemed as a temporary measure for curbing the imported inflation during mid 1970s, it did manage to help some poor farmers to obtain cultivable lands from the government in order to achieve a better self-sufficiency in food production for the whole nation and meanwhile helped to eradicate some poverty on a subsistence level.
Many economists are in the opinion that the US Economy will not collapse no matter what has to happen to the currency value of the US Dollars. The United States is basically a giant agricultural country and Americans have already achieved self-sufficiency in food production for a few hundred years. Even though the US economy has to go down to the drain like Tun predicts, Americans will still be able to survive by relying on the last resort, that is to adopt the Closed Door Policy and Protectionism in International Trade. However, Protectionism is usually not the best choice for a capitalist country like the US which champions the ideology of Laissez-Faire, therefore there are still rooms for the most brilliant economists to attempt to develop a viable Political Economic Theory that will eventually help to resolve the current economic issues such as fuel shortage, food shortage, land shortage and confidence crisis on international currency, based on the natural human response of instant spontaneity.
"36. Malaysia must give up the idea of competing on the basis of low cost labour. Against China, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia we just cannot win. We must provide other elements attractive to investors."
Comment by Onlooker: To give up competing on the basis of cheap labour, the government must be willing to abandone the affirmative action policy and turn to meritocracy policy in hiring the talented people in the administration of the Government Offices and the amanagement of the Government Linked Corporations. Otherwise, the best talents can always find a better pay job in neighbouring countries and in the private sector. The end-result will be an inefficient government bureaucracy being operated by some half-past-six government chief officers.
"37. Confidence in the consistency of Government policies and political stability would be among the factors attractive to business. There can be a lot of other things that can be provided to offset the rise in wages. After all we must remember that many developed countries have very high wages. Even if we double the salaries and wages paid in Malaysia we would still be far lower than wages in developed countries."
Comment by Onlooker: Tun Dr. Mahathir has been viewed by many analysts as the most critical factor which attempts to destabilize or has destabilized the political stability of contemporary Malaysia. The sincerity of Tun in relation to the above sentences is a bit questionable. No wonder some bloggers like to name-call Tun as a "hypocrite."
"38. We had planned to go hi-tech in order to increase income. But there is not much moving in the implementation of this policy. Instead we want to be an agricultural country again. Planting food crops on the side tables of roads may increase food production but it will not help fight inflation on the scale needed for overcoming the turmoil in the world."
Comment by Onlooker: Tun Dr. Mahathir had about 22 years' chances to go hi-tech in Proton Automobile Engines. However, why were there many Proton Cars which still had to be powered by Mitsubishi Engines for running on the road? "Hi-Tech Nation" is indeed a whimsy easier to dream of than to put into practical implementation. To increase food production for purpose of better national food security is a political consideration rather than an economic consideration. Even though the policy of the late Tun Abdul Razak, the so-called "Rancangan Buku Hijau", was deemed as a temporary measure for curbing the imported inflation during mid 1970s, it did manage to help some poor farmers to obtain cultivable lands from the government in order to achieve a better self-sufficiency in food production for the whole nation and meanwhile helped to eradicate some poverty on a subsistence level.
Many economists are in the opinion that the US Economy will not collapse no matter what has to happen to the currency value of the US Dollars. The United States is basically a giant agricultural country and Americans have already achieved self-sufficiency in food production for a few hundred years. Even though the US economy has to go down to the drain like Tun predicts, Americans will still be able to survive by relying on the last resort, that is to adopt the Closed Door Policy and Protectionism in International Trade. However, Protectionism is usually not the best choice for a capitalist country like the US which champions the ideology of Laissez-Faire, therefore there are still rooms for the most brilliant economists to attempt to develop a viable Political Economic Theory that will eventually help to resolve the current economic issues such as fuel shortage, food shortage, land shortage and confidence crisis on international currency, based on the natural human response of instant spontaneity.
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